Mar 24

Greece’ s schedule overrun: from bailing out the state to the economy’ s bail in!

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While the crawling 2nd round of the Evaluation of Greece’ s 3rd Bailout Programme seems to be approaching its crescendo, even by spreading “dissonant sounds” during the execution of the European anthem in Rome for the EU’ s 60th Anniversary – because of the Greeks insisting to include reference to the European acquis as it regards the social and employment agenda in the Declaration of the currently 27 Member States -, most of the engaged with this evaluation stakeholders seem to count on a smooth “fading out”. Having an agreement by mid April, in order to catch up with the corresponding Eurogroup’ s meetings, in order to agree on the transfer of the anticipated installment of some billions of Euros to the Greek accounts. So that the Greek government will mange to in-time meet its huge pending debt repayment liabilities of about € 7bn sometime in July.

Both the European institutions and the Greek government are much counting on the unexpected and significant surplus in the public accounts  (& its cashiers?) of the year 2016, originated from a huge increase of income, real estate and value-added taxes, which have contributed a lot to this public sector’ s surplus. Without underestimating the equally significant contribution to this surplus from the upholding of the third party payments of the state to the private sector, which has again reached unprecedented heights. With this surplus in hand and even with only a part of the scheduled installment from the ESM (having done part of the reforms scheduled), both the Europeans and the Greek authorities seem to be happy and live with, until just after the German elections’ milestone. The Commission (& ESM) will be happy, without having to face again the fiercely summer negotiations of the Summer of 2015, the Germans will avoid a “white noise” problem during their election period and the Greek government will prolong its survival reaching the end of year 2017!

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